COVID-19: Idaho 10 days from peak daily deaths, analysis says

New projections released by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations predict that Idaho will reach its peak for daily COVID-19 deaths just 10 days from now — more than a week ahead of its initial projection of April 26.

IMHE, an independent health population research center at the University of Washington of Medicine, said its model shows Idaho will reach a high of four deaths per day, statewide, on April 16.

It projects 69 COVID-19 deaths in the state by August 4.

IHME’s models are based on observed death rates, and so are not influenced by differences in testing. This means that changes in death rates would alter the model, but changes in the number of observed cases, or in how states are testing, would not.

The models are updated daily. Projections could change as more data becomes available.

The model shows Idaho will reach a hospital-resource-use peak on April 14, when 151 beds are predicted to be needed, including 31 intensive care unit beds.

IMHE says Idaho has 1,817 hospital beds available and 151 ICU beds available. Previous projections indicated a statewide shortage of 25 ICU beds.

These projections are also based on the assumption of continued strong social distancing and other protective measures. The model suggests that, with social distancing, the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.

Nationally, IMHE forecasts 81,766 deaths by Aug. 4, reaching a peak of 3,130 deaths on April 16.

At the national peak, IHME’s model shows the U.S. will have a hospital bed shortage of 36,654 beds, including a shortage of 16,323 ICU beds.

As of April 6, Idaho is reporting 1,101 confirmed cases of COVID-19 — including 42 in Kootenai County and two in Bonner County — and 10 deaths.